Guggenheim Securities Publishes ‘An Era Without Precedent: A Framework for Understanding Structural Change in the Global Economy’

A report that provides insights on today’s global financial system and examines the structural forces that will shape the coming decades

Guggenheim Securities recently published "An Era Without Precedent: A Framework for Understanding Structural Change in the Global Economy," a report co-authored by Guggenheim Partners Executive Chairman and Guggenheim Securities Co-Chairman Alan Schwartz and Guggenheim Securities Senior Managing Director Andrew Decker, TMT Investment Banking, that highlights the key drivers shaping the global economy over the past 50 years and into the future. The report provides historical context for today's secular changes and examines the complex variables interacting to create uncertainty.

The 27-page analysis, accompanied by an executive summary and a supplemental chartbook, presents the “6Ds" as a shorthand for the framework to understand how the variables interact, reinforce, or offset one another. 

The first four “Ds" (unfavorable demographics, rampant debt, deglobalizing supply chains, and political dysfunction) represent the structural headwinds impacting today’s investment landscape. 

Schwartz and Decker present the promise of two additional “Ds” (decarbonization through clean electricity technology and digitalization through artificial intelligence) as potential tailwinds capable of offsetting the drags on growth created by the first four variables. 

While each of these forces has been analyzed in isolation, Schwartz and Decker argue that their convergence calls for a new map to guide decisionmakers in the global economy. Together, the “6Ds” offer a broader lens for evaluating future investment risks and opportunities. 

“People need to take a step back and realize that they shouldn't make assumptions about the next 10 years working like the previous 10 years, because the variables underneath have changed dramatically," Schwartz said.

For more information about "An Era Without Precedent: A Framework for Understanding Structural Change in the Global Economy," or to request the report, email Guggenheim Securities.